Midseason Contract Predictions 2024-25

While the new season has just begun and NHL Free Agency doesn’t happen until July 1^st, the beginning of a season is incredibly important to players with contracts coming to a close. Having a hot start allows players looking to lock in a large payday, an early start on favourable negotiations. 

William Nylander began the 2023-24 season with a 17 game point streak in which he scored 12 goals and 15 assists for 27 points. On January 8^th, 2024, the 27 year old put pen to paper and signed a $92 million contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs extending him, ideally, for the rest of his career. This contract was controversial among fans and analysts as Nylander’s career high was 87 points during the 2022-23 season.

When he signed this contract, his play was at its best. Nylander used that as a negotiation tactic to squeeze as much money as possible into his contract and he played his cards correctly. This article speculates what the next contracts for four high-profile NHL players in their contract year will look like, as these players aim to follow William Nylander’s lead.

Igor Shesterkin

Goaltending in the NHL is unpredictable, with very few goaltenders consistently having impressive years. Igor Shesterkin is one of the few, having yet to drop below a .912 save percentage during his six-year career. He has consistently allowed the New York Rangers to make the playoffs, and done his best to help win a Stanley Cup sporting a .928 save percentage in 44 playoff games. This ranks his playoff save percentage fifth in all-time in goaltenders who have played at least 20 playoff games.

In 2021, Igor Shesterkin signed a 4-year, $22,666,667 contract, following that he had a Vezina Trophy winning year. Shesterkin put up a 2.07 GAA and a .935 save percentage in a year where goal scoring hit a generational high. Shesterkin maintained his dominance and finished third in Hart Trophy voting, the first goalie to do so since Sergei Bobrovsky in 2016-17.

As Shesterkin’s current contract ends, he continues to dominate the NHL, rocking a .933 save percentage through 9 games this season. His performance has brought NHL head coaches to weigh in on his recent contract negotiations. Earlier this season, Shesterkin declined an 8-year, $88 million contract which would have made him the highest paid goaltender in NHL history. His decision was then affirmed by Detroit Red Wings Head Coach, Derek Lalonde after they lost 4-1 to the Rangers on October 14^th, 2024. Lalonde praised Shesterkin via an October 2024 NHL Network interview, saying: “He’s special. I can see why he turned down the $88 million”.

The two highest paid goalies in NHL history are Carey Price at an Average Annual Value (AAV) of $10.5 million signed in 2017 and Sergei Bobrovsky at an AAV of $10 million signed in 2019. Those sat at 14% and 12.57% of the salary cap at the time, respectively. The NHL salary cap is estimated to be $92 million during the 2025-26 season making an AAV of $11 million 11.96% of the total salary cap. WIth that in mind It makes sense why he declined his contract offer. When compared to Price and Bobrovsky at the time they signed their contracts, Shesterkin has had a slightly better career save percentage with a slightly lower usage rate. All three goalies have won a Vezina Trophy and had moderate playoff success. These goalies, while incredibly similar, are set apart by their quality of team and consistency.

Throughout his career Bobrovsky struggled with year-to-year consistency which has drastically impacted the performance of his team; something that Shesterkin hasn’t seen. Carey Price stayed consistent through his early career; however, his quality of team was much lower than the wagon that Shesterkin tends, leading to an increased responsibility for Price.

For these reasons, I predict that Shesterkin’s next contract will have an AAV of 12.57% - 14% of next year’s salary cap. Based on an estimated salary cap of $92 million, this will translate to an AAV of $11.564 million - $12.88 million. This is a large range however, his performance this season will have a greater impact on negotiations than years’ past and will dictate which end of the range his AAV will sit at. Since Shesterkin is 29 years old, he will likely look to sign an eight-year contract that brings him to the end of his career as a New York Ranger.

Mikko Rantanen

Mikko Rantanen, a right winger for the Colorado Avalanche is up to sign the next “Super Contract” in the NHL. Masked by Mackinnon’s greatness, he may be one of the most underrated players in the league. Drafted 9^th overall in the 2015 NHL draft for his rare combination of size, speed and hockey IQ, Rantanen played a year in the AHL before his NHL rookie season in 2016-17. That year, he had 20 goals and 18 assists for 38 points. The following year, he exploded for 84 points in 81 games and his point pace hasn’t dropped since. Rantanen is a consistent 40 goal, 100-point player who remains consistent in the playoffs, and helped the Avs win a cup in 2022.

With Rantanen, there’s a few obvious contract comparables in David Pastrnak and William Nylander. All three are right wingers on competitive teams and in that 95+ point tier, with Nylander only recently making that jump. Pastrnak and Nylander make $11.25 million and $11.5 million annually, respectively, and both signed to eight year contracts. Further, both contracts were roughly 13.3% of the salary cap when they were signed. Extrapolating that percentage into the 2025-26 season where the salary cap is projected to be $92 million, it comes out to roughly $12.25 million. I believe that number is Rantanen’s projected salary floor as he has won a Stanley Cup, something Pastrnak and Nylander haven’t yet. As for the ceiling, look no further than Rantanen’s teammate and NHL superstar, Nathan Mackinnon, who signed a $12.6 million AAV in 2022.

Now Mackinnon is the second-best player in the NHL and it’s not up for debate. He scored 140 points last season and he’s been a Hart Trophy candidate four times, winning once last season. He’s the second-best player in the league and he decided to sign a contract that paid him $12.6 million annually. While that contract was signed in 2022 when the salary cap was lower, I don’t believe Rantanen will make or can justify making more than Nathan Mackinnon next season.

With that, Rantanen will likely sign for just under Nathan Mackinnon’s contract at $100 million over eight years for an AAV of $12.5 million. In other words, he’s getting the Connor McDavid Contract.

Evan Bouchard

In August 2023, the Edmonton Oilers #1 Defensemen, Evan Bouchard, opted to sign a bridge extension for a 2 year, $7.8 million contract. This was after multiple 40 point seasons and a playoff run in which Bouchard had 17 points in 13 games. He took a pay cut, presumably with an understanding that his next contract would be long term. Since then, Bouchard has put up 89 points in 94 regular season games and a playoff run where he put up 32 points on route to a finals appearance with the Oilers. He exploded last year, pushing himself into a higher tier. The only other active defensemen to have a similar playoff run is Cale Makar who is widely regarded as the best defensemen in the NHL; Makar is currently signed to a 6 year, $54 million contract with an AAV of $9 million.

Evan Bouchard will likely sign a larger contract but with the Oilers’ Salary Cap situation, the question is how much larger?

With Oilers General Manager, Stan Bowman, recently signing Leon Draisaitl to an 8 year, $112 million contract, the Oilers will have roughly 40% of their cap space allocated to three players during the 2025-26 season, not including Evan Bouchard’s new contract which will need to be signed before next season. With an expected $12.8 million in cap space come July 1^st, the Oilers will be tight to the cap. Along with this, several depth options, including forwards Jeff Skinner and Connor Brown needing contracts, Bouchard’s new contract will directly affect their forward depth. Obviously, the Oilers would like to keep Bouchard’s next contract as low as possible to keep those depth options, but a Stan Bowman move from his Chicago days will make that increasingly difficult.

On July 21, 2021, Stan Bowman confusingly attempted to reset the defensemen market, trading for Seth Jones, and then immediately signing him to an 8 year, $76 million contract with an AAV of $9.5 million. Seventeen days later, Darnell Nurse signed an 8 year, $74 million contract with the Edmonton Oilers. Darnell Nurse remains to be the only defensemen who signed a large contract as a result of the standard set by Seth Jones and Stan Bowman. Evan Bouchard is almost certainly going to use Darnell Nurse and Seth Jones comparables. They are not equal players, in any facet of the game. But Evan Bouchard will continue to outperform both players this year and will look to Stan Bowman and say: “Why should they be paid more than me?”, when negotiations begin.

With two different but equally important comparables for Bouchard’s next contract, we can go ahead and predict his next contract at an AAV of $9.5 million - $10 million for 8 years. His contract will be higher than Darnell Nurses, but not so much that it blows Cale Makar’s contract out of the water. The Oilers are tight to the salary cap and Bouchard knows that. This contract will allow the Oilers to sign cheap depth options to continue their search for a Stanley Cup.

Mitch Marner

Mitch Marner, Maple Leafs’ superstar and former contract diva is up for a new deal at the end of this season. Through six years of trade rumours, magical regular seasons, and disastrous playoff rounds, Marner’s second contract is finally up.

In 2018-19, Mitch Marner was starting on a line alongside newly-acquired centremen John Tavares. This duo torched the league that year with Marner posting 94 points in just his third season and Tavares getting a career-high with 47 goals. Very few twenty-year-olds can score 90+ points in the NHL and Marner knew that. During the summer of 2019, when Marner’s ELC had expired, rumours went crazy, even reaching as high as a $14 million offer sheet from an unnamed team. Marner and Maple Leafs General Manager Kyle Dubas were nowhere close on a contract and fans were certain that Marner would be elsewhere come October. That fall, a few days into training camp, Marner finally signed a 6 year, $65 million contract, earning him $10.893 million annually. This was a gross overpay but the Maple Leafs’ management had backed themselves into a corner over the past year, giving Marner all the power in the world because of how they handled the contract negotiations of Tavares, Nylander and Matthews.

Because of those messy contract negotiations, Marner has been criticized by Leafs fans harshly, even though he has scored at roughly a 95-point pace for the duration of the contract. He’s always been one of the premier playmakers in the NHL, even if it hasn’t translated to playoff success. However, those previous negotations will put pressure on this management group to sign a deal quickly and quietly, giving Marner some leverage.

Looking at comparables, there is an obvious one mentioned several times previously in William Nylander, who signed last season at $11.5 million annually, or 13.06% of the salary cap. While Marner and Nylander are very similar production wise now, Nylander didn’t have his break out season until last season, while Marner has produced at a 95-point pace his entire career. Marner realistically ends up making more than Nylander, with Auston Matthews $13.25 million contract, or 15.05% of the salary cap, as the projected ceiling.

Marner may also try to look to Leon Draisatl’s recent contract extension at $14 million annually, making him the highest paid player in the NHL until McDavid’s contract expires. Draisatl is the better scorer, with Marner making up for it with his dynamic two-way game and when looking at their regular seasons and overall impact to their team, some could argue Marner would have a case. However, with Leon Draisatl being the 5^th most efficient playoff scorer in NHL history, that fantasy would quickly be shut down.

The truth is that Mitch Marner is a 95+ winger capable of playing Selke-Level defense and scoring 30+ goals a season. But, when it comes down to the wire, Marner collapses year after year in the playoffs, never truly having an exceptional playoff season. While this could be said for the remaining Core 4 Maple Leafs players, it only makes the following comparison easier. Marner’s historically been a better player than William Nylander allowing Marner to command at least $11.5 million annually, but not good enough to demand Auston Matthews’ money ($13.25 million annually). Because of that, Marner should earn a contract in between theirs, similar to Mikko Rantanen’s predicted contract, at roughly ~$12.5 million for eight years making him a Maple Leaf for life.

That’s what he should earn, but I have no doubt it will come in closer to $13 million on an eight year deal, paying him north of $100 million because it’s Mitch Marner.

Conclusion

In a league where player contracts are an effect of player performance and these contracts can directly affect the overall performance of a team, the negotiation dynamic between these individual players and their team’s management is fascinating. Shesterkin, Rantanen, Bouchard and Marner will look to rewrite the financial landscape of the league this summer by capitalizing on timing, leveraging comparables and demonstrating on-ice dominance. As the season progresses, it will be fascinating to see how these predictions algin with reality and how these star player’s contracts continue to increase season after season.

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